The impact of factors on GDP in Kyrgyzstan

The purpose of the article is to show the negative impact of the COVID-19 on GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth in Kyrgyzstan. The research methodology is based on the works of domestic scientists and information and analytical reviews regarding GDP in Kyrgyzstan. An analysis was made of GDP growth after the country's accession to the EAEU (Eurasion Economic Union). Our country sought to join this union, and as it turned out, not in vain. The positive results from the performance in the EAEU are shown, especially for such a macroeconomic indicator as GDP. The negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on GDP in Kyrgyzstan and in other countries has been revealed. The consequences of the pandemic have been devastating for almost all countries. An analysis was made of the decline in GDP during the pandemic in Kyrgyzstan. Measures are given to ensure positive dynamics of the economic growth, such as the creation of favorable conditions for entrepreneurship;improving the business and stimulating investment activity;creating conditions for increasing productivity in the real sector of the economy;strengthening foreign trade relations and developing the domestic market. The obtained scientific results can be used in the program to improve the economic situation in the country. © 2023 The Authors.

Can tourism development and economic growth mutually reinforce in small countries? Evidence from Singapore

This study investigates the causal relationships between international tourism development and the economic growth of a global city-state - Singapore - drilling into the temporal details of the tourism-economy nexus in small countries. Many studies have examined whether the tourism-led growth hypothesis or the economy driven-tourism growth hypothesis holds in large developed and emerging countries. Still, relatively few studies examine small countries' tourism-economy nexus, and the temporal details of the nexus have not been adequately examined. We examine the tourism-economy nexus in Singapore using quarterly data from 1991Q1 to 2020Q4 and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model, with the long- and short-run dynamics and the feedback loop of the nexus considered. Our statistical findings show that international tourism development leads economic growth by two quarters in Singapore. Also, there are both 'consistent' and 'contemporaneous' positive feedback loops between tourism development and economic growth, but those loops cannot last for more than a quarter. From the economic perspective, our study reveals that improving tourism activities may accelerate the post-Covid economic recovery of some small countries that rely on tourism. Yet, continuous input is required to sustain the tourism-economy synergy.

A real options approach to growth opportunities and resilience aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic

PurposeFacing the challenges posed by the pandemic of COVID-19, this paper aims to contribute to the resilience of businesses through the development of a real options approach (ROA) that provides alternatives and opportunities for a decision process under situations when future events and outcomes are unknown and not capable of being known from current information.Design/methodology/approachThis paper involves a stochastic modelling process in generating a set of absolute option values, using available data and scenarios from the COVID-19 pandemic event. The modelling and simulations using ROA suggest how strategic portfolios resolve the growing problem during the endemic to all but in the most isolated societies.FindingsThis study finds the emergent correlation between circuit breakers and lockdowns, which have brought about a "distorted gravity” effect (inverse growth of global businesses and trades). However, "time-to-build” real options (i.e. deferral, expand, switch and compound exchange) start to function in the adaptive-transformative capabilities for growth opportunities of both government and corporate sectors. Significantly, some sectors grow faster than others while the compound exchange remains primarily challenging. Clearly, the government and corporate sectors are entangled, inevitably, the decoherence allows for the former to change uncertainty in the latter;therefore, government sector options change option values in the corporate sector.Originality/valueThe ROA by empirically focusing on both government and corporate sectors demonstrates under conditions of uncertainty how options in decision-making generate opportunities that hitherto have not been recognised and exercised upon by research in the immediate context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Importantly, the ROA provides an insightful concatenation (capability–behaviour approach) that drives resilience.

Managing disruptions in the maritime industry – a systematic literature review

PurposeThis paper presents a systematic review of the literature in the domain of maritime disruption management, upon which future research framework and agenda are proposed. Two review questions, i.e. the measures that are employed to manage disruptions and how these contribute to resilience performance, were pursued.Design/methodology/approachThe systematic literature review procedure was strictly followed, including identification and planning, execution, selection and synthesis and analysis. A review protocol was developed, including scope, databases and criteria guiding the review. Following this, 47 articles were eventually extracted for the systematic review to identify themes for not only addressing the review questions but also highlighting future research opportunities.FindingsIt was found that earlier studies mainly focused on measures, which are designed using mathematical models, management frameworks and other technical support systems, to analyse and evaluate risks, and their impacts on maritime players at the levels of organisation, transport system and region in which the organisation is embedded. There is, however, a lack of research that empirically examines how these measures would contribute to enhancing the resilience performance of maritime firms and their organisational performance as a whole. Subsequently, a Digitally Embedded and Technically Support Maritime Disruption Management (DEST-MDM) model is proposed.Research limitations/implicationsThis review is constrained by studies recorded by the Web of Science only. Nevertheless, the proposed research model would expectedly contribute to enhancing knowledge building in the specific domain of maritime disruption management and supply chain management overall while providing meaningful managerial implications to policymakers and managers in the maritime industry.Originality/valueThis research is perhaps one of the first studies which presents a systematic review of literature in maritime disruption management and proposes a future research framework that establishes the link between disruption management and resilience and organisational performance for empirical validation.

Social insecurity and varieties of family resilience strategies during the COVID-19 pandemic

PurposeThis study is aimed at developing an understanding of the consequences of the pandemic on families' socioeconomic resilience, and the strategies adopted by the families in overcoming social vulnerabilities amid uncertainty.Design/methodology/approachThe materials for this study consist of semi-structured interviews with 21 families spread across the South Sumatra Province, Indonesia. Families in the study represent four different income levels, namely very high, high, middle and low, and who also work in the informal sector. Each family has at least 1 or more members who fall into the vulnerable category (children, the elderly, people with disabilities unemployed or having potential economic vulnerability).FindingsTwo main findings are outlined. Regardless of their socioeconomic status, many of the families analyzed adopted similar strategies to remain resilient. Among the strategies are classifying the urgency of purchasing consumer goods based on financial capacity rather than needs, leveraging digital economic opportunities as alternative sources of income, utilizing more extensive informal networks and going into debt. Another interesting finding shows that the pandemic, to some extent, has saved poor families from social insecurity. This is supported by evidence showing that social distancing measures during the pandemic have reduced the intensity of sociocultural activities, which require invited community members to contribute financially. The reduction of sociocultural activities in the community has provided more potential savings for the poor.Research limitations/implicationsIn this study, informants who provided information about their family conditions represent a major segment of the workforce and tend to be technologically savvy and younger, due to the use of Zoom as a platform for conducting interviews. Therefore, there may be a bias in the results. Another limitation is that since the interviewees were recommended by our social network in the fields, there is a risk of a distorted selection of participants.Originality/valueThis study offers insights that are critical in helping to analyze family patterns in developing countries in mitigating the risks and uncertainties caused by COVID-19. In addition, the literature on social policy and development could benefit from further research on COVID-19 as an alternative driver to identify mechanisms that could bring about change that would result in "security.” Critical questions and limitations of this study are presented at the end of the paper to be responded to as future research agenda.

Sovereign Debt Crisis in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh: A Comparative Study

Using IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO) data for the macroeconomic variables, this study comparatively examines the sovereign debt crises in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. It identifies different macroeconomic factors related to the sovereign debt crisis, investigates their interrelations, and explores if their debt crises are similar. It shows that the general revenue to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratios of Sri Lanka degraded to converge with the upgrading status of Bangladesh during the Covid-19 period. Since 2010, Sri Lanka has maintained a well-off economic status with per capita GDP, while Bangladesh has a long way to go yet. The general expenses to GDP ratio of Sri Lanka shows stresses on its GDP, while that of Bangladesh is more relaxed. Sri Lanka has overstressed debt to GDP ratio along with Balance of Payments (BOP) deficits, while Bangladesh has continued traces of managed debt to GDP ratio along with BOP surpluses. Bangladesh has taken enough precautions in their sovereign debt management, compared to Sri Lanka. Even in 2020, Bangladesh maintained progressive investment track over the threshold limit of 30%, while Sri Lanka fell into a debt trap. Following the pandemic, Bangladesh has enjoyed a gross national savings to GDP ratio of above the threshold of 25%, while Sri Lanka is going through a critical phase. It shows governance myopia of Bangladesh regarding its imbalanced current account positions, while governance myopia of Sri Lanka exists with reference to its imbalanced current account positions, adverse gross debts, and government borrowing as well.

A position paper on the Quest for Education Quality and Inclusivity in Low Resource Environments such as Zimbabwe through Social Media

Social media has revolutionised human interaction globally especially on the informal front. This paper proposes that the social media facility could be ‘tamed' to help bridge the educational divide that is apparent especially in developing countries such as Zimbabwe and that was magnified by the Covid-19 pandemic. The pandemic split education provision along income lines with those from the higher income bracket accessing educational instruction virtually even during such an ‘emergency' while those from the low income group were literally on sabbatical, virtually excluded. The obtaining scenario threatens realisation of Sustainable Development Goal Number 4 by 2030 as planned by the United Nations. The particular goal is aimed at ensuring "inclusive and equitable quality education and promote life-long learning opportunities for all”. In some instances, some candidates get to the examination room so inadequately prepared that the situation can be described as de facto exclusion. In order to assist Covid-19 pandemic affected learners and to uplift education quality in low income communities, this paper recommends the provision of a tablet per class/grade that should be viewed as a learning/teaching tool. The class teacher can use the tablet to download material, show educational videos to the class, audio/video record learners for educational ends, receive educational materials from the Ministry and its partners and avail these in an interesting multimodal manner to the learners.

Effect of Remittance Inflows on External Debt in Developing Countries

This paper analyzes the effect of remittance inflows on external debt in developing countries, by identifying international reserves as a potential transmission channel. Using panel data over the period 1970–2017 and covering 50 low-and middle-income countries worldwide, we find a positive and significant effect of remittance inflows on the external debt-to-GDP ratio. We also find a negative and significant effect of international reserves on external debt. After controlling for international reserves, the effect of remittance inflows on external debt increases;it remains positive and significant. The results suggest that the role of international reserves as a self-insurance mechanism, and the Dutch disease effect related to remittance inflows are at play. In addition, we find negative and significant effects of economic growth and savings-investment gap on external debt. We also find positive and significant effects of the nominal exchange rate and the United States lending interest rate on external debt. We discuss the policy implications of these findings, while highlighting factors that policymakers should focus on for containing external debt in developing countries in the post-COVID-19.

Some Statistical and Analytical Notes on the Nature of the 2020-2021 Crisis

The present work is based on a hypothesis that the Czech economy was showing signs of economic de-celeration and a potential slump into deeper growth problems way before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, i.e., at least in the year 2019. However, the present text does not intend to thoroughly con-firm this hypothesis because in order to do so, a longer timeline of key economic indicators needs to be analysed. What it does present is at least a partial argumentation supporting the abovementioned hy-pothesis and some basic calculations. It proposes two ways towards its confirmation. The first one is a comparative analysis of individual - especially European - economies' response to subsiding external influences, i.e., to the weakening of the effects of the pandemic on the economy. The second way is at least a partial analysis of key macroeconomic indicators from the time before and during the pan-demic, with an emphasis on detectable divergences in the development. The conclusion of our research is the finding that as early as in 2019, the Czech economy was showing signs of imminent deceleration of growth, which would probably have turned into stagnation and possibly a certain decrease in econom-ic activity. The conclusions indicate that the reason behind such development was a massive but in fact little effective investment activity in the Czech economic environment, which is historically related to the structure of the economy and to the position of the Czech industrial sector in supplier relation-ships. Two related phenomena arise from that: firstly, a relatively low labour productivity, with producers domiciled in the Czech Republic reaching quite a low volume of value added, and secondly a massive capital outflow in the form of profits paid to parent companies abroad. The final part of the paper outlines some potentially effective steps which might lead - under favourable circumstances - to restructuring processes in the Czech economy. Due to the date of finishing the research, the paper does not include the consequences of the War in Ukraine.

Impact of Renewable Energy on the Economy of Saudi Arabia

The objective of the study was to identify the impact of renewable energy on Saudi economy during 2000-2021. Analytical techniques were used to conduct this study. An analysis of the study used a set of variables, in which Renewable energy perceives as independent variable and the dependent variables are GDP per capita, net foreign direct investment, unemployment, fixed capital formation, and net foreign trade. The data of the study were analyzed using the E-views program. According to the study, renewable energy has an impact on certain economic variables and does not have an impact on others. A partial validity is found for the study's central hypothesis. According to our findings, renewable energy contributes significantly to net foreign direct investment, unemployment, and fixed capital formation, but not to GDP per capita, net foreign trade, or fixed capital formation.

Investigation of Risk Factors Influencing the Safety of Maritime Containers Supply Chain: In the Period of the Pandemic

Maritime security is facing many challenges due to war conflicts, geopolitics, sanctions, and pandemics. The supply chain for maritime containers has faced considerable obstacles as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Numerous factors, such as port closures, travel restrictions, and a decreased workforce, have impacted the supply chain. The risk of cargo theft, piracy, and other security events has increased as a result of these difficulties. Therefore, it is essential to look at the risk variables that may affect the security of the marine container supply chain during the pandemic. This research paper highlights those risks through the following three indexes: the likelihood index (LI), severity index (SI), and average risk index (ARI) by analyzing 64 risk factors that were prepared and designed by incorporating the Delphi expert survey technique to prepare a systematic questionnaire. The article addresses worries over the COVID-19 pandemic's effects on international supply networks. The causes of the most recent global shipping industry disruptions and their impact on supply chains have been thoroughly examined. In order to reduce the number of disruptions in global supply chains and lower the direct and indirect costs for consumers, the authors have also mentioned the necessary actions that must be implemented. The results concluded after the analysis pointed to "management activities,” such as human resources or the working environment as having the highest possibility of going wrong, whereas "operation activities” were judged to likely be the fatal ones if the security of maritime containers was ever compromised. The main objective of the study is to evaluate how the COVID-19 epidemic may affect international shipping, particularly container shipping, which is currently the most important link in the world's multimodal land–sea supply chains.

A twenty years bibliometric analysis (2002 – 2021) of business economics research in ASEAN

ASEAN is predicted to be the world's largest single market by 2030, after the US, China, and the EU. This study aims to discover research performance in all ASEAN countries, including identifying output levels, research focus, and influential authors in the region. The approach used in this study is a bibliometric analysis of publications indexed in the WoS database for the past two decades (2002–2021). Of the more than 20,000 documents analyzed, it was indicated that each ASEAN country has exclusive and non-exclusive keywords. Singapore has the highest number of citations among the other ASEAN countries.

Taiwan's Food Resiliency - or Not - in a Conflict with China

The US military, intelligence, and diplomatic communities have overlooked a key vulnerability in their assessment of a potential military conflict between China and Taiwan- Taiwan's growing reliance on agricultural imports and its food stocks (except for rice) that could endure trade disruptions for only six months. This article assesses Taiwan's agricultural sector and its ability to feed the country's population if food imports and production are disrupted;identifies the food products that should be prioritized in resupply operations, based on Taiwan's nutritional needs and domestic food production;and outlines the required logistical assets. These findings underscore the urgency for US military planners to develop long-term logistical solutions for this complex strategic issue.

Investigating Digital Intensity and E-Commerce as Drivers for Sustainability and Economic Growth in the EU Countries

Digital technology development caused the digital transformation of the economy and society. E-commerce, the most widespread among digital innovations, reached a significant share, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, impacting economic growth. The progress of digital technologies and the evolution of e-commerce can contribute to the more sustainable development of organizations and worldwide economies. This paper analyzed the influences of digital transformation and e-commerce on GDP and sustainable development. The study used the Eurostat database to gather the research variables for the EU countries. The paper used artificial neural networks and cluster analysis to reveal the significant influence of digital transformation and e-commerce on GDP and sustainable organizational development. Countries with a low level of digital transformation and e-commerce should propel these activities to increase economic performance sustainably.

Savings groups and the COVID-19 pandemic in Zimbabwe: Critical assessment of the informal social protection scheme

The COVID-19 pandemic has ravaged nations and people's lives throughout the globe across multiple dimensions. Measures to curtail the spread of the disease in Zimbabwe have stifled the capacity of the majority of the population, relegated to the informal sector, to source a living. In the absence of robust social protection interventions from the state, these measures pose a more immediate threat to the lives of marginalised and vulnerable communities than the pandemic itself. Savings groups (SGs), which have providedfinancial relief andprotection from economic shocks and stressors to such population groups, have been entrapped by the preventive and containment measures employed by the Zimbabwean authorities. It is unclear how and to what degree such conditions leave underserved populations exposed to socioeconomic shocks as such vital informal social protection alternatives have been rendered ineffectual. Using documentary review, this study examines the fate of SGs in such socially restricted and economically debilitating circumstances. In addition, the authors discuss strategies for improving the sustainability of such grassroots micro-finance initiatives under COVID-19 induced contraptions. Programmatic andpolicy measures necessary for retaining and protecting the viability of (SGs) as alternatives for informal social protection for marginalised and vulnerable groups under COVID-19 are advanced.

Fit for purpose? The patents regime, the Fourth Industrial Revolution, and sustainable development

This article uses data from several publicly available databases to show that the distribution of intellectual property for frontier technologies, including those useful for sustainable development, is very highly skewed in favor of a handful of developed countries. The intellectual property rights (IPR) regime as it exists does not optimize the global flow of technology and know-how for the attainment of the sustainable development goals and is in need of updating. Some features of the Fourth Industrial Revolution imply that the current system of patents is even more in need of reform than before. COVID-19 vaccines and therapies and the vast inequality in access to these has highlighted the costs of inaction. We recommend several policy changes for the international IPR regime. Broadly, these fall into three categories: allowing greater flexibility for developing countries, reassessing the appropriateness of patents for technologies that may be considered public goods, and closing loopholes that allow for unreasonable intellectual property protections.

Global Uncertainty and Economic Growth - Evidence from Pandemic Periods

This paper investigates whether global uncertainty predicts economic growth rates using a global sample of 136 countries. We use the panel regression model and find strong evidence that global uncertainty negatively predicts the economic growth rate. Further, the negative impact of global uncertainty on economic growth rates is amplified during pandemic periods versus non-pandemic periods. Our main findings hold after a range of robustness tests.

Online innovation and repurchase intentions in hotels: the mediating effect of customer experience

PurposeThis study investigates how customer experience mediates the relationship between online innovation and repurchase intention in the hotel industry in Ghana.Design/methodology/approachData was collected from 167 clients from a two-star hotel in Accra, the capital city of Ghana. Structural equation modelling was used to analyse the relationship between the variables.FindingsResults from the analysis indicate that online innovation positively leads to higher repurchase intentions and better customer experience, affirming that customer experience leads to repurchase intentions. Thus, while online innovation leads to repurchase intentions, the strength of this repurchase intention depends on customer experience. Therefore, customer experience mediates the relationship between online innovation and repurchase intention in the hotel industry.Research limitations/implicationsThis study addressed only the customer's point of view;future studies could investigate the subject from the managers and other stakeholders' point of view to get a holistic view. Also, the sample size could be improved, and the study could be conducted in other African countries for comparison purposes.Practical implicationsThe study shows that online innovation does not automatically lead to increased positive repurchase intention. Hotel managers must, therefore, enforce good customer experience for better profitability.Originality/valueAs far as the researchers know, limited studies have been conducted into how customer experience mediates online innovation and repurchase intention in the hotel industry in Ghana using structural equation modelling. This makes this research unique in Ghana. This study makes an original contribution by measuring the real effect of innovation on repurchase intentions in the hotel industry in Ghana.

Insights about the Effects of COVID-19 on International Trade during the Main Pandemic Years in Romania and Poland

The COVID-19 crisis disrupted the economic life of the entire world and caused various disturbances at different levels in economies and societies. Consequently, the study of the economic impact of the health crisis became necessary to identify the influences that the health crisis had on numerous activities, including economic ones. There are calls for more studies to be conducted about the effects of COVID-19 at different levels so that lessons can be learned. The present paper answers these calls and focuses on the analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on international trade at the country level by investigating two European countries, Romania and Poland. First, it analyzes the macro-level context of the two countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. Then, a regression methodology is employed to measure the impact of the COVID-19 burden (which includes the number of cases and the number of deaths related to COVID-19) on the export and import flows in Romania and Poland. The investigation refers to the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, 2020–2021, which were the most significant. The results of the regression analysis showed that international trade was affected by the COVID-19 burden in the two countries, but the influences were different in the two countries. Exports and imports in Poland were more affected by COVID-19 than exports and imports in Romania. COVID-19 also had a higher impact on the import than the export flows in both countries during the period considered. The negative assumed relationships between COVID-19 burden and international trade flows were not verified in these specific country cases. This paper provides more evidence about the economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis, contributing to a better understanding of the economic effects of health crises in general.